GOTHECA-NOCK is a pilot study in mainland Norway (hereafter Norway) and the Chinese Karakoram and is envisioned to become an international network across Europe and Central Asia. It will reach its aim through a circular process involving numerical modeling, field observations and assessments of community resilience.
GOTHECA-NOCK selects four study sites in Norway as ‘basecamps’ due to their geographic proximity, and one site in the Chinese Karakoram region to complement the research with new knowledge of unique and less-understood surging glaciers. The social and cultural dissimilarities also provide us a playground to explore the multifacetedness of community resilience. The selection enables a holistic view of the interplays between climate, cryosphere, hydrology, and society through the prism of contrasts and similarities.
WORK PACKAGE 1
Data acquisition This work package focuses on building a database for model calibration and validation and interpretation of results. Considering publicly available remote sensing data are abundant we focus more on filling critical gaps through fieldwork and increasing their resolution and spatial coverage, especially for the remote Kyagar glacier in Chinese Karakorum.
Regional glacio-hydrological modeling The model activities described in this work package will be carried out for all five river catchments (figure above). Model outputs (historical and future total runoff, ice surface melt, surface mass balance and downscaled air temperature time series) will be used in work package 3.
WORK PACKAGE 3
Ice dynamic - basal hydrology modelling Work package3 features detailed 3D numerical and empirical modelling. First, we will integrate ice-dam floatation and sensible heat exchange between the lake water and the glacier into existing components of an ice flow model to explore the evolution of GLOFs. Then, combining the relations revealed through numerical modelling, we will calculate GLOF return periods and magnitudes using empirical analysis, compare the calculation with the recorded flood events in literature and during fieldwork.
WORK PACKAGE 4
Community resilience assessment Activities in this work package includes interviews and focus group discussions adapted from several tool kits in downstream communities.
WORK PACKAGE 5
Syntheses, communication and dissemination This work package provides open access to information and new knowledge to all stakeholders. Thus, it uses various approaches and information channels and design targeted products for diverse target groups.